A Novel Numerical Modeling Chinese Population Evolution

Citation: Liangxin Li, Zaishu Cheng, "A Novel Numerical Modeling Chinese Population Evolution", Universal Library of Multidisciplinary, Volume 01, Issue 02.

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

In this paper, we build a very accurate mortality model with a constant time decay function and the optimal goal of minimizing the total number of deaths, then solve it by a numerical approach. China’s vast territory, large population, complex flow of people, and the concept of returning to the hometown greatly affect the accuracy of survey population mortality. Furthermore, the instability of the solution of the Lee-Carter mortality model makes it difficult to predict the future population mortality in China. Based on the population data published in China from 1990 to 2000 with corrections, the mortality results from 2001 to 2019 are predicted by using the new model. Compared with the population and deaths in the National Statistical Bulletin, the average death rate error is less than 0.64%, the maximum annual error is less than 6.11%. According to this result, the total population and mortality results from 2001 to 2020 are predicted. Most of the prediction error rates of annual total population is 1 ‰, and the maximum error rate is less than 3.4 ‰. The accuracy of the model for Chinese population prediction is around 10 times higher than any other current models.

Keywords: Mortality, Lee-Carter, Chinese Population Forecast, Numerical Optimization Method, Time Series

https://doi.org/10.70315/uloap.ulmdi.2024.0102001